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来源:度排名健康门户    发布时间:2017年10月20日 14:51:54    编辑:admin         

Russia’s ruble may have strengthened sharply Wednesday, but it’s plunge in recent days has encouraged plenty of talk about the country’s catastrophe, with some even proclaiming that the new Russia is about to go the way of the old USSR.俄罗斯卢布虽然在上周三强劲反弹,但之前几天的暴跌,已经让坊间充满“俄罗斯大难临头”的言论;甚至有人预言,今天的俄罗斯将重蹈苏联的覆辙。Don’t believe it. Russia is not the ed States, and the effects of a rapidly declining currency over there are much less dramatic than they would be in the U.S.别信这些话。俄罗斯并非美国,货币迅速贬值对俄罗斯的影响,远不会像在美国那样严重。One important thing to remember is that the fall of the ruble has accompanied a precipitous decline in the per barrel price of oil. But the two are not as intimately connected as might be supposed. Yes, Russia has a resource-based economy that is hurt by oil weakness. However, oil is traded nearly everywhere in U.S. dollars, which are presently enjoying considerable strength.重点是,在卢布汇率下跌的同时,石油价格也在骤降。但两者之间的联系也许不像人们所想的那么紧密。的确,油价下跌对俄罗斯以自然资源为基础的经济产生了不利影响。然而,几乎所有的石油交易都是以美元进行的,而目前美元则相当坚挺。This means that Russian oil producers can sell their product in these strong dollars but pay their expenses in devalued rubles. Thus, they can make capital improvements, invest in new capacity, or do further explorations for less than it would have cost before the ruble’s value was halved against the dollar. The sector remains healthy, and able to continue contributing the lion’s share of governmental tax revenues.也就是说,俄罗斯石油生产企业在出售产品时,可以用强劲的美元进行结算,而生产费用则用贬值的卢布来付。由于卢布兑美元的比价已经下降了将近50%,石油企业可以改善自身的资本状况,或者用更低的成本进行新产能投资,或者继续进行勘探。俄罗斯石油行业依然很健康,并且能够继续为政府贡献大部分税收。Nor is ruble volatility going to affect the ability of most Russian companies to service their debt. Most of the dollar-denominated corporate debt that has to be rolled over in the coming months was borrowed by state companies, which have a steady stream of foreign currency revenues from oil and gas exports.卢布的震荡也不会影响大多数俄罗斯企业的偿债能力。未来几个月中,大多数需要展期的美元债务由俄罗斯国有企业持有,而石油和天然气出口为这些企业提供了稳定的外汇来源。Russian consumers will be hurt, of course, due to the higher costs of imported goods, as well as the squeeze inflation puts on their incomes. But, by the same token, exports become much more attractive to foreign buyers. A cheaper ruble boosts the profit outlook for all Russian companies involved in international trade. Additionally, when the present currency weakness is added to the ban on food imports from the European Union, the two could eventually lead to an import-substitution boom in Russia.当然,由于进口商品价格上升,以及通胀对收入的挤压,俄罗斯的消费者将蒙受损失。但出于同样的原因,俄罗斯出口产品将对外国买家更具吸引力。卢布贬值提升了所有参与国际贸易的俄罗斯公司的盈利前景。In any event, don’t expect any deprivations to inspire riots in the streets of Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s popularity has soared since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. The people trust him. They’ll tighten their belts and there will be no widesp revolt against his policies.不管经济困境如何,都不太可能引发莫斯科的街头骚乱。乌克兰危机爆发以来,俄罗斯总统普京的持率不断飙升。俄罗斯人信任他。他们会勒紧裤带,而普京的政策则不会遭到广泛的反对。Further, the high price of oil during the commodity supercycle, coupled with a high real exchange rate, led to a serious decline in the Russia’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors over the past 15 years. This correlation—termed by economists “Dutch disease”—lowered the Russian manufacturing sector’s share of its economy to 8% from 21% in 2000.进一步来看,过去15年中,受处于大宗商品超级周期的高油价的影响,再加上卢布汇率处于高点,俄罗斯的制造业和农业均出现了严重滑坡。这种被经济学家称为“荷兰病”( 指一国经济中某一初级产品部门异常繁荣而导致其他部门的衰落的现象——译注)的状况,让制造业在俄罗斯经济中的比重从2000年的21%降到了现在的8%。The longer the ruble remains weak, however, the less Dutch disease will rule the day. A lower currency means investment in Russian manufacturing and agriculture will make good economic sense again. Both should be given a real fillip.话说回来,卢布保持低迷的时间越长,“荷兰病”的影响就会越小。卢布贬值意味着俄罗斯制造业和农业的投资将带来较好的经济效益,这两个领域都将反弹。Low oil prices are also good for Russia’s big customers, especially China, with which Putin has been forging ever-stronger ties. If, as expected, Russia and China agree to transactions in rubles and/or yuan, that will push them even closer together and further undermine the dollar’s worldwide hegemony. Putin always thinks decades ahead, and any short-term loss of energy revenues will be far offset by the long-term gains of his economic alliances.低油价还对俄罗斯的大客户们有利,特别是中国,而普京也一直在加强中俄之间的联系。如果两国以卢布或人民币进行贸易结算如预期那样达成协议,中俄就会走的更近,同时也将进一步削弱美元在全球的统治地位。普京一直着眼长远,他建立经济同盟所带来的长期收益将远远超过能源收入方面的短期损失。In the most recent development, the Russian central bank has reacted by raising interest rates to 17%. On the one hand, this is meant to curb inflation. On the other, it’s an direct response to the short selling speculators who’ve been attacking the ruble. They now have to pay additional premiums, so the risk/reward ratio has gone up. Speculators are going to be much warier going forward.俄罗斯央行的最新应对措施是把利率提高到17%。一方面,这样做是为了遏制通胀。另一方面,这直接反击了那些做空卢布的投机者。现在,这些投机者必须付更高的溢价,风险/回报比已经上升。今后,投机者会更加小心。The rise in interest rates mirrors how former U.S. Fed Chair Paul Volcker fought inflation in the U.S. in the early ‘80s. It worked for Volcker, as the U.S. stock market embarked on a historic bull run. The Russians —twhose market has been beaten down during the oil/currency crisis —hare expecting a similar result.俄罗斯提高利率的做法和20世纪80年代初时任美联储主席的保罗o沃尔克应对通胀的方法如出一辙。沃尔克的措施收效良好,并带来了美国股市前所未有的大牛市。在石油与货币危机重创俄罗斯股市的情况下,俄罗斯人期盼着同样的结果。Not that the Russian market is anywhere near as important to that country’s economy as the US’s is to its. Russians don’t play the market like Americans do. There is no Jim Kramerovsky’s Mad Money in Russia.不过,在俄罗斯经济中,股市的重要性远不及美国。俄罗斯人也不像美国人那样炒股。在俄罗斯可没有《Mad Money》那样的投资节目。Russia is not some Zimbabwe-to-be. It’s sitting on a surplus of foreign assets and very healthy foreign exchange reserves of around 5 billion. Moreover, it has a strong debt-to-GDP ratio of just 13% and a large (and steadily growing) stockpile of gold.俄罗斯不会成为津巴布韦。它的经常账户处于盈余状态,外汇储备保持在大约3750亿美元的健康水平。同时,俄罗斯的债务占GDP比率很低,只有13%;而黄金储备充足且保持稳定增长。And there is Russia’s energy relationship with the EU, particularly Germany. Putin showed his clout when he axed the South Stream pipeline and announced that he would run a pipeline through Turkey instead. The cancellation barely lasted long enough to speak it before the EU caved and offered Putin what he needed to get South Stream back on line. Germany is never going to let Turkey be a gatekeeper of European energy security. With winter arriving, the EU’s dependence on Russian oil and gas will take center stage, and the union will become a stabilizing influence on Russia once again.俄罗斯和欧盟在能源方面也有联系,特别是和德国。普京曾强硬的取消了与欧盟合作的南流(South Stream)天然气管道项目,并宣称将取道土耳其另建一条管道。话音未落,欧盟方面就做出让步满足了普京的要求,以确保这个项目重新上马。德国永远也不会让土耳其在欧洲能源安全方面发挥“守门员”的作用。随着冬季临近,欧盟对俄罗斯油气的依赖将成为主导因素,而欧盟将再次为稳定俄罗斯局势而施加影响。In short, while the current situation is not working in Russia’s favor, the country is far from down for the count. It will arrest the ruble’s slide and keep pumping oil. Its economy will contract but not crumble. The harsh reality is that American shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians (or the Saudis), since their costs of production are much higher. Many US shale wells will become uneconomic if oil falls much further. And it they start shutting down, it’ll be disastrous for the American economy, since the growth of the shale industry has underpinned 100% of US economic growth for the past several years.简而言之,尽管当前情况不利,但俄罗斯远未倒下。它将止住卢布的下滑势头并继续开采石油。俄罗斯经济将萎缩,但不会崩盘。而严峻的现实是,面对油价直线下降,生产成本居高的美国页岩油气公司要担心的东西远远超过俄罗斯(或者沙特)。如果油价继续大幅度下跌,美国的许多页岩油井将难以为继。而如果这些油井开始停产,美国经济就会面临灾难,因为这几年美国经济的增长全靠页岩油气行业撑。Those waving their arms about the ruble might do better to look at countries facing real currency crises, like oil-dependent Venezuela and Nigeria, as well as Ukraine. That’s where the serious trouble is going to come.对卢布贬值大惊小怪的人也许更应该看看那些真正面临货币危机的国家,比如高度依赖石油的委内瑞拉和尼日利亚,还有乌克兰。这些才是将要出现大麻烦的地方。(财富中文网) /201412/350631。

SHENZHEN, China — In a grimy workshop, among boiling vats of chemicals, factory workers are busy turning stainless steel rods into slender tube casings, a crucial component of electronic cigarettes. Not long ago, Skorite Electronics was a tiny firm struggling to produce pen parts. Today, it is part of an enormous — and virtually unregulated — supply chain centered here that produces about 90 percent of the world’s e-cigarettes.中国深圳——肮脏的车间里满是装着沸腾的化学品的大桶,工人们正忙着将不锈钢棒制作成细长的套管,这是电子烟的关键组件。不久之前,斯可瑞特电子有限公司(Skorite Electronics)还是一个靠生产笔的零件苦苦挣扎的小公司。如今,公司已经成为以这里为中心的一个巨大的——几乎不受管制的——供应链的一部分,世界上90%的电子烟都产自这里。This year, Chinese manufacturers are expected to ship more than 300 million e-cigarettes to the ed States and Europe, where they will reach the shelves of Walmart, 7-Eleven stores, gas station outlets and so-called vaping shops.今年,中国的制造商将向美国和欧洲运送逾3亿电子烟,它们将出现在沃尔玛(Walmart)、7-11(7-Eleven)、加油站商店,以及所谓的电子烟商店的货架上。The devices have become increasingly popular, particularly among young adults, and yet hundreds of e-cigarette manufacturers in China operate with little oversight. Experts say flawed or sloppy manufacturing could account for some of the heavy metals, carcinogens and other dangerous compounds, such as lead, tin and zinc, that have been detected in some e-cigarettes.电子烟越来越受欢迎,特别是在青年人中间,然而在中国运营的数以百计的电子烟生产商几乎不受监管。专家表示,目前已经在一些电子烟中检测到的重金属、致癌物质和铅、锡、锌的危险化合物,可能与存在缺陷或疏忽的生产过程有关。One study found e-cigarette vapor that contained hazardous nickel and chromium at four times the level they appear in traditional cigarette smoke; another found that half the e-cigarettes sampled malfunctioned and some released vapor tainted with silicon fibers.一项研究发现,电子烟蒸汽中有害物质镍和铬的含量是传统香烟烟雾的四倍;另一项研究发现,取样的电子烟有一半存在故障,有一些电子烟会释放含有硅纤维的蒸汽。There have also been reports in the ed States of e-cigarettes that exploded after a lithium ion battery or electric charger overheated, causing burns.此前美国有过锂电池或充电器过热导致电子烟爆炸的报道,爆炸造成了烧伤。“We need to understand what e-cigarettes are made of,” says Avrum Spira, a lung specialist at the Boston University School of Medicine, “and the manufacturing process is a critical part of that understanding.”“我们需要了解电子烟是由什么制成的,”波士顿大学医学院(Boston University School of Medicine)肺病专家阿夫鲁·斯皮拉(Avrum Spira)说。“为了了解这一点,我们需要了解它的生产过程。”A review by The New York Times of manufacturing operations in Shenzhen found that many factories were legitimate and made efforts at quality control, but that some were lower-end operations that either had no safety testing equipment or specialized in counterfeiting established brands, often with cheaper parts. The Times visited several such workshops in Shenzhen, including a counterfeiting shop set up in a garage and another that displayed a knockoff of an e-cigarette brand called “Russian 91%,” which the factory boss said was destined for the ed States.《纽约时报》有关深圳地区电子烟生产经营的调查显示,很多工厂都是合法生产,都在努力加强质量管控,但一些工厂属于低端经营,它们有的没有安全检测设备,有的专门伪造名牌产品,通常采用廉价零件。《纽约时报》走访了深圳的几家工厂,其中包括一家设在车库里的仿冒品车间,另一家工厂则展示了仿造电子烟品牌“Russian 91%”的产品,工厂老板表示,这些产品将销往美国。The e-cigarette industry in China has developed differently from other industries, like toys, apparel and smartphones, where global brands outsource their manufacturing here but monitor and enforce quality control standards. Chinese companies were the first to develop e-cigarettes, and that happened in a regulatory void. In the ed States, the Food and Drug Administration has just begun to move toward regulating e-cigarettes, working on rules that would force global producers, in China and elsewhere, to provide the agency with a list of ingredients and details about the manufacturing process.中国电子烟产业的发展道路与玩具、装及智能手机等产业不同。在那些产业中,国际品牌将生产任务外包给中国,但会监督、实施质量管控标准。中国公司最先研发了电子烟,并且是在监管缺失的情况下进行的。在美国,美国食品药品监督(Food and Drug Administration,简称FDA)刚刚开始准备对电子烟进行管控,制定规定,迫使中国及其他地方的生产商提供成分列表,以及生产过程的细节。But analysts say setting those rules and new manufacturing guidelines could take years. In the meantime, Chinese factories are quickening the pace, hoping to build profits and market share before regulatory scrutiny arrives and most likely forces many e-cigarette makers to close.但分析人士表示,制定规定及新的生产指南需要几年的时间。与此同时,中国工厂正在加快步伐,希望在受到监管者关注前盈利,占据市场份额,监管举措可能会迫使很多电子烟制造商关门。“This is really a chaotic industry,” says Jackie Zhuang, deputy general manager of Huabao International, a Chinese tobacco flavoring company in Shanghai and an expert on China’s e-cigarette market. “I hope it will soon be well regulated.”“这是一个非常混乱的产业,”上海烟草香料公司华宝国际公司副总经理、中国电子烟市场专家庄志强(音)说。“我希望,这个产业很快能得到有效管控。”In a five-square-mile area in the northwestern part of Shenzhen called Bao’an, in a district packed with industrial parks, there are believed to be more than 600 e-cigarette producers, and many more component suppliers selling bulk orders of tube casings, integrated circuit boards, heating coils and lithium ion batteries, the essential components of the e-cigarette. If you are a manufacturer in Shenzhen and need 50,000 baked-metal casings, a local manufacturer can supply them for about ,000 and have them delivered within hours.深圳西北部的宝安区到处都是工业园区,在其中一块5平方英里(约合13平方公里)的区域,据称有600多家电子烟生产商,套管、集成电路板、加热线圈和锂电子电池等电子烟基本元件的批发商就更多了。如果你是深圳的一个制造商,需要5万个金属壳套管,当地的厂家可以2.5万美元(约合15万元人民币)的价格提供货物,而且会在数小时内送货。Unlike the counterfeiters’ shops, the largest Shenzhen e-cigarette manufacturing operations are relatively clean, with rows of workers seated on plastic stools along a fast-moving assembly line.与仿造作坊不同,深圳最大的电子烟生产工厂相对比较干净,成排的工人坐在塑料凳上,旁边是快速运转的流水作业线。In 2004, a Chinese pharmacist named Han Li helped develop the e-cigarette, which was then sold through his company, Beijing Ruyan. Other manufacturers soon followed, and by 2009, as e-cigarettes became more popular in the ed States and Europe, more factories opened.2004年,中医师韩力参与研发了电子烟,后来通过自己的公司北京如烟公司进行销售。其他生产商紧随其后,到2009年,随着电子烟在美国和欧洲日益受欢迎,越来越多的电子烟工厂应运而生。The boom has made China the breeding ground for a new, and some would say innovative, product. And yet the Chinese government has played no role in the development of the industry or in regulating it. As in the West, China’s tobacco authority — which acts as both regulator and dominant, state-controlled producer of cigarettes and tobacco products — has been caught off guard by a product that is neither a food nor a drug and perhaps not necessarily even a tobacco product.这股热潮使得中国成为一种新产品——一些人会说是创新产品——的发源地。但中国政府在该产业的发展中没有起到作用,也没有进行监管。就像在西方一样,中国的烟草主管部门——既是监管者,又是居主导地位的国有香烟及烟制品生产商——被这种既不属于食品、也不属于药品,甚至未必算是烟草制品的产品打了个措手不及。Some Chinese companies, however, are trying to get ahead of the anticipated F.D.A. rules. First Union is one of the biggest, operating several manufacturing complexes here in Shenzhen with about 6,000 employees. Its plants have glass-enclosed, dust-free rooms that the company says are as clean and sophisticated as pharmaceutical labs.但一些中国公司正设法赶在FDA出台规定前赢得利润。合元集团是最大的电子烟公司之一,在深圳有几个工厂,拥有大约6000名员工。该公司的工厂设有无尘玻璃屋,该公司称这些无尘玻璃屋像制药实验室一样清洁、精密。First Union and Kimree, a rival based in nearby Huizhou, say they manufacture for many of the best-selling e-cigarette brands. Neither Chinese company, however, has a long history. The founders of Kimree, which recently filed for an initial public stock offering in the ed States, got their start making consumer electronics, like cordless telephones. And before turning to e-cigarettes in 2006, the founders of First Union made silica gel brassieres and weight loss belts. Company executives say they can deliver high-quality goods.合元集团及位于附近惠州地区的竞争对手吉瑞公司表示,他们为很多畅销的电子烟品牌生产产品。但这些中国公司的历史都不长。吉瑞公司最初是生产无线电话等消费类电子产品的,最近在美国申请进行首次公开募股。合成集团于2006年进军电子烟产业,在此之前主要生产硅胶胸罩和减肥腰带。公司高管表示,它们能够提供优质产品。“We have the same quality-control standards as medical device makers,” said Sunny Xu, the chairman at First Union.合成集团总裁徐中立说,“我们的质量管控采用的是医疗设备生产商的标准。”Global tobacco giants that have entered the e-cigarette market are also manufacturing in China, and they insist they are doing so with stringent controls.已经进入电子烟市场的国际烟草巨头也在中国生产产品,它们坚称在生产过程中进行了严格的管控。Altria, formerly known as Philip Morris, sells the e-cigarette brand MarkTen. In a statement, Altria said: “MarkTen is manufactured in China for Nu Mark” — Altria’s e-cigarette subsidiary — “by an established manufacturer of e-cigarettes, which is following Nu Mark’s design specifications and quality control requirements” with “detailed quality-control measures.”奥驰亚集团(Altria)原名菲利普莫里斯(Philip Morris),销售MarkTen品牌的电子烟。奥驰亚在声明中称:“MarkTen是在中国为Nu Mark制造的产品”(Nu Mark是奥驰亚制造电子烟的子公司),其制造者是一个经验丰富的电子烟厂家,遵循Nu Mark的设计规范和质量控制要求,实施了“详细的质量控制措施”。Troubled Manufacturing问题丛生的生产过程Smaller manufacturers, though, are more representative of the ethos here. Tiny start-up factories buy components from suppliers, set up assembly lines and hire low-skilled migrant workers to snap, stamp, glue and solder the e-cigarette components together.不过,规模较小的制造商更能代表这个产业的特色。微小的初创公司从供应商处购买组件,设立组装线,并雇佣低技能的外来务工人员,双手上下翻飞,把电子香烟的组件粘合、焊接在一起。“In the e-cigarette market, you don’t need big capital — that’s why there are now so many manufacturers here,” said Qiu Weihua, the founder of Joyetech, a large Chinese firm that is trying to distinguish itself as a high-quality producer of e-cigarettes. The firm, for example, employs testers who vape and check for flaws. “The big challenge is how to make a quality product.”“在电子烟市场,你并不需要太大的资本——这就是现在这里有这么多制造商的原因,”中国大型公司卓尔悦(Joyetech)的创始人邱伟华说。这家公司试图与其他公司区别开来,树立一个高品质电子香烟制造商的形象。例如,公司还聘请了专门的测试者试吸,看是否存在问题,“最大的挑战是如何制造优质产品。”The e-cigarette makers, many run by young entrepreneurs, have found markets overseas, using online platforms like Alibaba.com. But occasionally, an American businessman like Yaniv Nahon simply shows up at the factory gate. In 2010, Mr. Nahon, then 29, grew tired of selling e-cigarettes at a mall kiosk in South Florida and decided to produce his own line called Vapor 123.许多电子烟工厂都是由年轻的创业者开设的,它们通过Alibaba.com等网络平台在海外找到了市场。但是,像亚尼维·纳翁(Yaniv Nahon)这样的美国商人偶尔也会出现在工厂门口。2010年,时年29岁的纳翁因为厌倦了在南佛罗里达州一个商场内的小摊销售电子烟,决定生产自己的产品,他的产品叫做Vapor 123。“A lot of our products come in smaller orders using express mail service, no questions asked,” Mr. Nahon said in an interview at a factory called Jomo in Shenzhen. “Importing this into the U.S. isn’t difficult.”“我们的很多产品都会通过特快专递,被小批量地送到这里,没人会问任何问题,”纳翁在深圳一家叫做九的工厂里接受采访时说。“把这个引进美国并不困难。”That simplicity has made it easy for counterfeiting operations. Legitimate Shenzhen factory bosses complain about the fakes sold to wholesalers and online traders, who then mix fakes in with bulk orders of the authentic brands. Among the concerns is that some smaller manufacturers use poor-quality insulation paint on the heating coils, paint that could prove dangerous if it leached into the e-liquids.这种简易性使造假变得非常容易。合法深圳厂家的老板经常抱怨有人卖假货给批发商和网络交易者,这些人之后会在大宗真货订单中掺杂假货。有人担心,一些规模较小的制造商会在加热线圈上使用质量很差的绝缘涂料,倘若这种涂料渗入电子烟液,可能会很危险。“I worry about overseas consumers,” says Danny Zhu, who runs KangerTech, a large Shenzhen e-cigarette maker. “There are lots of small workshops here, with 10 or 20 people, and they have no quality control or safety certifications for the material they use. Some of their products are covered with a layer of paint. It’s unhealthy.”“我很担心海外消费者,”深圳大型电子烟制造商康尔(KangerTech)的经营者丹尼·朱(Danny Zhu)说。“这里有很多小作坊,里面有一二十个工作人员,对于他们所使用的材料,既没有质量管控也没有安全认。他们的有些产品上涂着一层涂料。很不健康。”Scientific studies hint at a host of problems related to poor manufacturing standards. A study published last year in the open access online journal PLoS One found the presence of tin particles and other metals in e-cigarette vapors and said they appeared to come from the “solder joints” of e-cigarette devices.科学研究表明,很多的问题都和糟糕的生产标准有关。去年发布在公开网络杂志《公共科学图书馆·综合》(PLoS One)上的一份研究报告称在电子烟的蒸汽中发现了锡颗粒和其他金属,并表示它们似乎来自电子烟的“焊接接头”。Another study of nearly two dozen e-cigarettes bought in the ed States found large amounts of nickel and chromium, which probably came from the heating element, another suggestion that poorly manufactured e-cigarettes may allow the metals to enter into the e-liquids.另一项研究在购自美国的将近20多电子烟中发现了大量的镍和铬,这些物质可能来自加热元件,这再次表明,劣质的电子烟可能会使这些金属物质进入电子烟液。“We’ve found on the order of 25 or 26 different elements, including metals, in the e-cigarette aerosols,” says Prue Talbot, a professor of cell biology at the University of California, Riverside, and co-author of several of the studies. “Some of the metal particles are less than 100 nanometers in diameter, and those are a concern because they can penetrate deep into the lungs.”“我们已经在电子烟的气雾剂里发现了大约二十五六种不同元素,其中包括金属,”加州大学河滨分校(University of California, Riverside)的细胞生物学教授、几篇相关论文的合著者普吕·塔尔特(Prue Talbot)说。“有些金属颗粒的直径还不到100纳米,这些东西之所以令人担心,是因为它们能够深入肺部。”Health advocates say they are troubled by a history of food and drug safety scandals in China, such as when manufacturers substituted diethylene glycol, an industrial solvent, for the sweetener glycerin when making toothpastes and cough medicine. That led to reports of more than 350 deaths in Panama, China and other countries in 2006 alone.健康倡导者表示,中国食品和药物安全丑闻的历史让他们深感担忧。比如,制造商在制造牙膏和止咳药的时候,会用工业溶剂二甘醇代替甜味剂甘油。报道称,仅2006年,这种做法就在巴拿马、中国和其他国家造成了超过350例死亡事件。The risk of diethylene glycol showing up in e-cigarettes is real. In 2009, the F.D.A. issued a warning about the potential health risks associated with e-cigarettes, saying laboratory studies of some samples had found the presence of toxic chemicals, including diethylene glycol, which is used in antifreeze.电子烟中出现二甘醇的风险是真实存在的。2009年,FDA发布了一条与电子烟相关的潜在健康风险警告称,在对一些样本进行实验室研究后发现,里面存在二甘醇等有毒化学物质,而这些东西是用于防冻剂的。Pressure on Regulators管理者的压力Eventually, analysts say, the F.D.A. could be compelled to certify e-cigarette factories and the manufacturing standards. But that could be months if not years away. The agency, however, is under pressure from public health advocates and medical experts.分析人士称,FDA最终将被迫对电子烟工厂和制造标准进行资质认。但是,这个过程可能需要几个月甚至几年。然而,FDA还面临着来自公共健康倡导者和医疗专家的压力。“What if someone in China buys nicotine, solvents and flavorings, but the source of these ingredients is unknown and they’re manufactured with impurities?” says Maciej Goniewicz, a toxicologist at the Roswell Park Cancer Institute in Buffalo. “That could put consumers at risk.”“如果中国有人购买了尼古丁,溶剂和调味品,但这些材料来源未知,而且在制造时还含有杂质怎么办?”布法罗罗斯威尔·帕克癌症研究所(Roswell Park Cancer Institute)的毒理学家马切伊·戈尼威茨(Maciej Goniewicz)说。“这可能会使消费者陷入危险。”Keenly aware that tighter regulations are on the horizon, Shenzhen e-cigarette makers are beginning to establish overseas branches to make e-liquids — the substance that is heated, then turned into vapor and inhaled. The F.D.A. does not yet have standards for e-liquids, but many of the Chinese companies say they make them in labs in the ed States that have passed F.D.A. quality-control standards.由于清楚地意识到官方将实施更严格的管制,深圳电子烟制造商都开始建立海外分机构来制造电子烟液——这些电子烟液经过加热,会变成蒸汽,然后被人吸入。FDA目前还没有关于电子烟液的标准,但许多中国企业都声称,他们是在美国的一些达到FDA质量控制标准的实验室制造这些液体的。“I can tell you that all of our e-liquid is manufactured, bottled and filled here in the ed States,” the chief executive at Mistic e-cigarettes, John J. Wiesehan Jr., said in an email. “Our liquid never leaves the U.S. We get no e-liquid from China.”“我可以告诉你,我们所有的电子烟液都是在美国制造、装瓶和填充的,”Mistic电子烟的首席执行官小约翰·J·维森汉(John J. Wiesehan Jr.)在一封电子邮件中说。“我们的液体从未离开美国。我们没有任何来自中国的电子烟液。”Big e-cigarette makers in the ed States have begun to move manufacturing to the ed States or Europe. Global tobacco companies are doing likewise. And some Chinese manufacturers, including Joyetech, are also moving their production facilities to the West.美国的大型电子烟制造商开始把制造过程转移到美国或欧洲。国际性的烟草公司也在这样做。包括卓尔悦在内的一些中国制造商也开始把他们的生产设施搬到西方。“A lot of people don’t trust the air or water in China,” says Mr. Qiu, the boss at Joyetech e-cigarettes, “so why would they trust our e-liquid?”“很多人都不信任中国的空气或水源,”卓尔悦电子烟的老板邱伟华说,“那么他们为什么要信任我们的电子烟液?” /201412/348812。

Online bus ticket booking网购客车票Twenty-seven provinces in China will first offer online bus ticket booking by the end of this year, when their inter-provincial online bus ticket booking system largely completes, according to the Ministry of Transport.据交通运输部消息,今年年底前,首批27个省份的省域道路客运联网售票系统主体工程将完成建设,这些省份将由此率先实现区域内联网售票工作。And by the end of next year, the national online ticket booking system for road transport will be put into operation, which will be a parallel bus ticket booking website with the train ticket booking website 12306.cn.明年年底前,全国道路客运联网售票系统整体投入运营,这也将成为与;12306;火车订票网并驾的客运订票网站。The ministry will explore a way to implement real-name bus ticket booking in future.未来,交通部将探索实现长途客运购票实名制。 /201506/379937。

Pavan’s favourite activity is playing football outdoors. His second favourite is playing football indoors, and in third place is practising football skills against the sofa. Reading – the pursuit that Francis Bacon claimed “maketh a full man” – comes further down the eight-year-old’s list, behind school, going to discos, buying stuff, chatting to people, watching TV and playing on his Xbox games console.8岁小男孩潘万(Pavan)最喜欢的活动是在户外踢足球,其次是在屋里踢足球,位居第三的,是在沙发上操练球技。培根(Francis Bacon)所谓“读书使人充实”的阅读,在潘万的活动计划名单中非常靠后,远在上学、跳迪斯科、购物、聊天、看电视以及玩Xbox游戏机之后。Would he ever pick up a book for pleasure? “No,” Pavan shoots back jovially. “If I’m bored, I will ask my mum if I can play on her phone.” By this point, I am relieved that Michael Gove is not part of our conversation at a homework club in Harlesden Library, north London.他会出于喜欢而读书吗?“不会,”潘万兴奋地摇摇头说。“自己若是心烦了,就会纠缠妈妈玩她的手机。”说到这里,我感觉如释重负,因为英国教育大臣迈克尔#8226;戈夫(Michael Gove)不会成为我们在伦敦北部哈里斯登图书馆(Harlesden Library)举办的家庭作业俱乐部的谈话内容了。The UK education secretary has long feared that British children are “just not ing enough”. The same concern has been raised by publishers and literacy charities, which worry that new distractions – computer games, online s, social networking – are pushing books off the shelf. More than 60 per cent of 18-to-30-year-olds now prefer watching television or DVDs to ing, according to a survey for the charity Booktrust. A similar proportion of young people think the internet and computers will replace books in the next 20 years.英国教育大臣一直担心本国孩子“阅读不足”。出版商以及扫盲慈善机构同样也有此隐忧,它们担心电脑游戏、网络视频以及网络社交等新的干扰物正一步步“鸠占鹊巢”。据慈善团体Booktrus调查研究,如今超过60%的18-30岁年轻人把看电视及DVD置于阅读之前。类似比例的年轻人认为因特网与电脑会在20年后取代纸质书籍。The literacy debate received fresh impetus last October when a study from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development suggested that vast numbers of young people were leaving school without the ability to well. Of the 24 industrialised countries covered by the research, England was the only one that went backwards, with literacy and numeracy skills lower among the young – those aged 16 to 24 – than the old. (The results were little better in Northern Ireland; Scotland and Wales were not included in the study.)去年10月,经合组织(Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)发布的研究报告表明大量年轻人毕业后的阅读能力差强人意,读写能力的争论获得了强有力的新依据。该研究报告涵盖了24个工业化国家,其中英国是唯一排名下滑的国家,其16-24岁年轻人的读写与计算能力逊于成年人。(北爱尔兰的研究结果也大同小异,研究报告并未涉及苏格兰与威尔士两个地区)。The OECD’s hard-nosed economic concern with skills leads logically to ing for pleasure, which is closely associated with educational success. An analysis of the 1970 British cohort, tracking about 6,000 young people born in April of that year, found children’s test scores correlated more with how often they than with how educated their parents were. “Being able to a book mechanically is vital, but ing for pleasure shouldn’t be optional,” says Joanna Prior, managing director of Penguin UK. “The benefits will be reaped throughout a child’s life.”经合组织务实地从经济角度考量技能问题,必然得出快乐阅读重要性的结论,而快乐阅读又与教育成功与否紧密关联。对英国1970年4月出生的6000人群体进行追踪分析,发现孩子们的考试成绩与其说和他们父亲的受教育程度相关,倒不如说与他们的阅读能力紧密关联。“能够按部就班的阅读至关重要,但快乐阅读也不是可有可无,”英国企鹅出版集团(Penguin UK)发言人乔安娜#8226;普赖尔(Joanna Prior)说。“阅读将让孩子受益终生。”For publishers, the commercial implications of a decline in literacy are obvious. In some ways the threat to the UK’s #163;3bn book market is more fundamental than that faced by the record industry: even when people stopped paying for music, they never stopped listening to it.对于出版社来说,读写能力下降对自身商业利益的影响显而易见。在某些方面,它对英国年营业额30亿英镑的图书市场的威胁要大大高于对唱片业的影响:消费者即便不再花钱购买音乐产品,但他们仍一如既往地在欣赏音乐。Literacy charities have tried various tricks to promote ing – including the Six Book Challenge, to get less confident ers in the habit; Quick Reads, which distributes short, easy texts for adults; and Premier League Reading Stars, which enlists top footballers to spend time with struggling schoolchildren. In areas such as Harlesden, such initiatives have drawn countless children and adults closer to books. But they are fragmented.扫盲慈善团体想方设法提高国民的阅读能力————包括推出让自信心不足的学生养成阅读习惯的“Six Book Challenge”计划,给成年人分发短小易懂的阅读材料的Quick Reads计划、以及让英超明星陪伴学习有困难学生的Premier League Reading Stars计划。在哈里斯登等地区,这些计划成功地让无数学生及成年人亲近书籍,但星星之火,难成燎原之势。So literacy charities have come together under a single “Reading for Pleasure” campaign in the hope of having greater impact, particularly in lobbying government. “We need to slightly toughen up the message,” says Prior. “There’s a literacy crisis in the country. There shouldn’t be anybody who doesn’t properly when they leave school.”所以扫盲慈善机构精诚团结,大张其鼓掀起目标单一的“快乐阅读”运动,以期拥有更大影响力,尤其是游说政府采取行动。“我们必须稍稍强化这一信息,”普赖尔说。“英国面临读写能力危机,每个学生毕业后,都应该有正常的阅读能力。”Views differ on the most effective interventions. Some focus on the period in which books enter a child’s life; some on the ages of 10 and 11, when other hobbies often take over; and others see the emotionally formative teenage years as the most important. But the wider point is clear: “If you’re going to engage a er for life, you need to engage them before they become an adult,” says Louisa Livingston, head of consumer insight at Hachette UK.就采取何种最有效的干预手段,可谓众说纷纭。有些专家专注于书籍走入孩子生活的那个阶段;有些专注于其它兴趣爱好开始后来居上的10-11岁那个阶段;有些则认为情感成型的青少年时期最为关键。但专家的普遍共识是:“若要养成终生阅读习惯,就得在成人之前养成,”阿歇特集团(Hachette)负责消费者洞察能力的主管路易莎#8226;利文斯顿(Louisa Livingston)说。That means making children comfortable around books, with soft-furnished areas in classrooms and personalised guidance so that each child can be directed to the books he or she might enjoy. School librarians, whose ranks are at risk from government funding cuts, should be seen as “book experts”, says Penguin’s Prior. Above all, while successive governments have fretted about test scores, publishers want politicians to recognise the importance of ing for pleasure. If that can be achieved, they argue, imaginative teaching methods will surely spring forth.这意味着要让孩子们乐意阅读,即把教室布置得温馨得体,并提供个性化帮助,指导每个孩子阅读自己喜欢的书籍。普赖尔说,学校图书馆管理员应该视作“图书专家”,而他们的地位因政府经费削减而岌岌可危。总之,几届政府都在为学生的考试成绩忧心忡忡之际,出版商则希望政客们认识到快乐阅读的重要性。他们振振有词地说,如果这个目标能够实现,那么富有想象力的教学必将源源不断地迸发。The social context is crucial. A 2011 National Literacy Trust survey of British children found that a third of respondents did not have books of their own. Of these, 19 per cent were below the ing level expected for their age, compared with 7.6 per cent of those who did own books.社会环境也至关重要。2011年英国国家文教信托(National Literacy Trust)对全国学生的调查研究表明:接受调查者中有三分之一没有个人的图书。其中,19%学生的阅读能力低于其年龄要求的标准,而对拥有个人图书的学生来说,这个比例仅为7.6%。Inequalities were also picked up in the OECD study. England and Northern Ireland showed “one of the stronger associations between socio#173;economic background and literacy proficiency” among the countries tested. What’s more, the report concluded, “unlike most other countries, this association is stronger among young people than among the overall adult population”.经合组织的研究中,还涉及了不平等问题。在接受测试的所有国家中,英国与北爱尔兰呈现了“社会经济背景与读写能力之间存在更紧密的关联度”。而且,该研究报告得出以下结论:“与其它国家不一样的是,这种关联度在英国年轻人中比成年人更为突出。”Such issues have come to the fore in a parliamentary inquiry into adult literacy now under way. “Whether or not you use the word ‘class’, it is about home environments,” Helen Casey, an adult literacy expert, told MPs at its first session last month. “Kids spend 12 per cent of their time in school; they spend the rest of their time not in school. The culture they grow up in is really important,” said another expert, David Hughes. Yet at least one of the MPs seemed sceptical of that approach, suggesting that amounted to “excuses for the education profession”.如今英国议会正在调查成年人的读写能力,这些问题已经表露无遗。“不管用不用‘社会阶层’这个词,归根到底就是家庭环境影响。”上个月第一次议会全会时,成人读写能力专家海伦#8226;凯茜(Helen Casey)这样对全体议员说。“孩子们12%的时间呆在学校,其它时间则都在校外,他们成长的文化氛围至关重要。”另一专家大卫#8226;休斯(David Hughes)说。然而,至少有一位议员似乎对这种说法持怀疑态度,暗示此举会导致“为教师找开脱借口”。That is not the only apparent disconnect between educationalists and politicians. Gove wants children to study more books, and has amended the GCSE syllabus accordingly. His critics worry that will turn children away from ing for pleasure. “Teachers almost don’t have time for children to be relaxed around books,” says Sue Cowley, an educational author. “Reading starts to become something that’s done to be measured, not done out of choice.”这并非教育家与政客意见唯一明显的南辕北辙之处。教育大臣戈夫希望孩子们读更多书,并为此修改了英国普通中等教育书(GCSE)考试大纲。批评他的人则担心此举会让孩子离快乐阅读渐行渐远。“教师几乎没有让孩子放松阅读的时间,” 教育作家苏#8226;考利(Sue Cowley)说。“阅读不是因为个人兴趣使然,而是开始成为考量的工具。”Some also detect an unwelcome snobbishness in Gove’s desire for the books to be harder – he has expressed particular gripes against John Steinbeck’s Of Mice and Men (too short) and Stephenie Meyer’s Twilight series (too easy). “If someone’s ing a football magazine, shouldn’t we just be happy that they’re ing?” says Richard Mollet of the Publishers Association. “If a child is ing and enjoying the immersion, then surely that’s the most important thing.”从教育大臣戈夫希望增加书籍难度的意图中,有些专家还嗅出了一丝势利意味,这着实让人反感————他曾经大大抱怨斯坦贝克(John Steinbeck)的《人鼠之间》(Of Mice and Men)太过简短以及斯蒂芬妮#8226;梅尔(Stephenie Meyer)的《暮光之城》(Twilight)太过浅显。“如果读的是足球杂志,我们难道不该为此感到高兴吗?”英国出版协会(Publishers Association)执行总裁理查德#8226;勒(Richard Mollet)说。“孩子阅读书籍,并且沉醉其中,这才是最最重要的事。”While that debate rumbles on, a wave of technological change means that children may find it harder to reserve time for ing. Technology has helped people to enjoy books – a backlit e-er means no more torches under the duvet – but it has helped other media more. Long train journeys once meant hours ing or hours gazing out the window. Now, with an iPad, they can mean computer games and the previous evening’s TV programmes.尽管上述争论仍没完没了,但新一波科技进步意味着孩子们越来越难预留出阅读时间。科技帮助人类从书籍中获得了快乐————背光式电子阅读器意味着无需再拿着手电趴在被窝中看书——但它也帮助了其它媒介。过去坐火车长时间旅行意味着可以长时间读书或是眺望窗外美景。如今有了iPad,长途旅行意味着玩电脑游戏以及补看前一天晚上的电视节目。One option for publishers is to follow the music industry, encouraging authors to do even more events and engage more with social media so as to create “touchpoints” with their fans. Another is to adapt the books themselves. Interactive ebooks aly offer multiple endings (a digital variation on the theme of “if you choose door A, turn to page 78”), and publishers are investing in apps that seek to lure infrequent ers with and audio embellishments.出版商的选择之一就是步音乐产业之后尘,鼓励作家参与更多活动,与社交媒体打更多交道,以便创造粉丝“点击量”;另一种选择则是自己改编图书。交互式电子书籍已经提供多种结局可能(如数字式主题变更:“若选A门,请翻至第78页”),出版商已出资开发了多款应用软件,它们用润色过的视频及音频来努力吸引不太读书的读者。“There’s very much an experimental attitude at the moment,” says Jake Manion, creative director at animation company Aardman, which worked on HarperCollins’s The Hobbit app. “Smartphones haven’t been around that long and people are still writing the stories in the way they’ve always done.” The biggest change, Manion argues, will come in “five to 10 years”, by which point writers will be “so familiar with the technology that they’ll be creating stories in different ways”.“目前这完全只是抱着试试看的态度,”杰克#8226;马尼恩(Jake Manion)说,他是动画公司阿德曼(Aardman)创意总监,该公司曾开发了哈珀柯林斯(HarperCollins)出版小说《霍比特人》的应用软件。“智能手机问世的时间还不长,作家如今仍以传统方式创作。”马尼恩说,最大的变化将发生在“5-10年后”,届时作家将“对科技耳熟能详,因此能以不同方式进行创作”。And then, perhaps, football practice might wait.也许到那时候,连玩足球或许都得靠边站了。 /201405/295053。

Satao was about 45 years old and believed to have been one the largest living elephants in the world.约45岁的大象萨陶曾经被认为是世界上存活的最大的大象之一。Satao was an elephant famous for having tusks so long that they nearly reached the ground, and so distinct, that he could be easily identified from the air as he roamed Kenya#39;s vast Tsavo East National Park.萨陶因为它那几乎长可及地的象牙而闻名。外形显眼的萨陶在肯尼亚东察沃国家公园漫步时,可以轻松的被飞行员识别出来。Now, Satao is dead, slain by ivory poachers who used poison arrows to bring the great elephant down. Once Satao was in their clutches, the poachers hacked off his legendary tusks and much of his face, the Tsavo Trust announced on Facebook and Twitter.如今,萨陶被象牙偷猎者杀害了。致力于查沃地区野生动物保护的非营利性机构查沃信托称,偷猎者们用毒箭放倒了萨陶,随后砍下了它那传奇性的象牙和大部分面部。Although Satao was killed on May 30, and his corpse found on June 2, he was so badly mutilated that it took nearly 10 days to confirm that it was indeed the beloved elephant.萨陶在5月30日被杀害,尸体于6月2日被发现。但因为尸体被严重毁坏,人们花了近10天才确认它确实是倍受人们喜爱的的象王萨陶。;Today it is with enormous regret that we confirm there is no doubt that Satao is dead, killed by an ivory poacher’s poisoned arrow to feed the seemingly insatiable demand for ivory in far off countries,; the nonprofit organization said in a statement. ;A great life lost so that someone far away can have a trinket on their mantelpiece.;查沃信托在声明中说,“今天我们确认萨陶已经死于象牙偷猎者的毒箭,对此我们深表遗憾。 它死于那些遥远国家里对象牙贪得无厌的追求。一个伟大的生命逝去了, 远方某人的壁炉上可以多个饰品了。” /201406/306800。

Russia’s ruble may have strengthened sharply Wednesday, but it’s plunge in recent days has encouraged plenty of talk about the country’s catastrophe, with some even proclaiming that the new Russia is about to go the way of the old USSR.俄罗斯卢布虽然在上周三强劲反弹,但之前几天的暴跌,已经让坊间充满“俄罗斯大难临头”的言论;甚至有人预言,今天的俄罗斯将重蹈苏联的覆辙。Don’t believe it. Russia is not the ed States, and the effects of a rapidly declining currency over there are much less dramatic than they would be in the U.S.别信这些话。俄罗斯并非美国,货币迅速贬值对俄罗斯的影响,远不会像在美国那样严重。One important thing to remember is that the fall of the ruble has accompanied a precipitous decline in the per barrel price of oil. But the two are not as intimately connected as might be supposed. Yes, Russia has a resource-based economy that is hurt by oil weakness. However, oil is traded nearly everywhere in U.S. dollars, which are presently enjoying considerable strength.重点是,在卢布汇率下跌的同时,石油价格也在骤降。但两者之间的联系也许不像人们所想的那么紧密。的确,油价下跌对俄罗斯以自然资源为基础的经济产生了不利影响。然而,几乎所有的石油交易都是以美元进行的,而目前美元则相当坚挺。This means that Russian oil producers can sell their product in these strong dollars but pay their expenses in devalued rubles. Thus, they can make capital improvements, invest in new capacity, or do further explorations for less than it would have cost before the ruble’s value was halved against the dollar. The sector remains healthy, and able to continue contributing the lion’s share of governmental tax revenues.也就是说,俄罗斯石油生产企业在出售产品时,可以用强劲的美元进行结算,而生产费用则用贬值的卢布来付。由于卢布兑美元的比价已经下降了将近50%,石油企业可以改善自身的资本状况,或者用更低的成本进行新产能投资,或者继续进行勘探。俄罗斯石油行业依然很健康,并且能够继续为政府贡献大部分税收。Nor is ruble volatility going to affect the ability of most Russian companies to service their debt. Most of the dollar-denominated corporate debt that has to be rolled over in the coming months was borrowed by state companies, which have a steady stream of foreign currency revenues from oil and gas exports.卢布的震荡也不会影响大多数俄罗斯企业的偿债能力。未来几个月中,大多数需要展期的美元债务由俄罗斯国有企业持有,而石油和天然气出口为这些企业提供了稳定的外汇来源。Russian consumers will be hurt, of course, due to the higher costs of imported goods, as well as the squeeze inflation puts on their incomes. But, by the same token, exports become much more attractive to foreign buyers. A cheaper ruble boosts the profit outlook for all Russian companies involved in international trade. Additionally, when the present currency weakness is added to the ban on food imports from the European Union, the two could eventually lead to an import-substitution boom in Russia.当然,由于进口商品价格上升,以及通胀对收入的挤压,俄罗斯的消费者将蒙受损失。但出于同样的原因,俄罗斯出口产品将对外国买家更具吸引力。卢布贬值提升了所有参与国际贸易的俄罗斯公司的盈利前景。In any event, don’t expect any deprivations to inspire riots in the streets of Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s popularity has soared since the beginning of the Ukraine crisis. The people trust him. They’ll tighten their belts and there will be no widesp revolt against his policies.不管经济困境如何,都不太可能引发莫斯科的街头骚乱。乌克兰危机爆发以来,俄罗斯总统普京的持率不断飙升。俄罗斯人信任他。他们会勒紧裤带,而普京的政策则不会遭到广泛的反对。Further, the high price of oil during the commodity supercycle, coupled with a high real exchange rate, led to a serious decline in the Russia’s manufacturing and agricultural sectors over the past 15 years. This correlation—termed by economists “Dutch disease”—lowered the Russian manufacturing sector’s share of its economy to 8% from 21% in 2000.进一步来看,过去15年中,受处于大宗商品超级周期的高油价的影响,再加上卢布汇率处于高点,俄罗斯的制造业和农业均出现了严重滑坡。这种被经济学家称为“荷兰病”( 指一国经济中某一初级产品部门异常繁荣而导致其他部门的衰落的现象——译注)的状况,让制造业在俄罗斯经济中的比重从2000年的21%降到了现在的8%。The longer the ruble remains weak, however, the less Dutch disease will rule the day. A lower currency means investment in Russian manufacturing and agriculture will make good economic sense again. Both should be given a real fillip.话说回来,卢布保持低迷的时间越长,“荷兰病”的影响就会越小。卢布贬值意味着俄罗斯制造业和农业的投资将带来较好的经济效益,这两个领域都将反弹。Low oil prices are also good for Russia’s big customers, especially China, with which Putin has been forging ever-stronger ties. If, as expected, Russia and China agree to transactions in rubles and/or yuan, that will push them even closer together and further undermine the dollar’s worldwide hegemony. Putin always thinks decades ahead, and any short-term loss of energy revenues will be far offset by the long-term gains of his economic alliances.低油价还对俄罗斯的大客户们有利,特别是中国,而普京也一直在加强中俄之间的联系。如果两国以卢布或人民币进行贸易结算如预期那样达成协议,中俄就会走的更近,同时也将进一步削弱美元在全球的统治地位。普京一直着眼长远,他建立经济同盟所带来的长期收益将远远超过能源收入方面的短期损失。In the most recent development, the Russian central bank has reacted by raising interest rates to 17%. On the one hand, this is meant to curb inflation. On the other, it’s an direct response to the short selling speculators who’ve been attacking the ruble. They now have to pay additional premiums, so the risk/reward ratio has gone up. Speculators are going to be much warier going forward.俄罗斯央行的最新应对措施是把利率提高到17%。一方面,这样做是为了遏制通胀。另一方面,这直接反击了那些做空卢布的投机者。现在,这些投机者必须付更高的溢价,风险/回报比已经上升。今后,投机者会更加小心。The rise in interest rates mirrors how former U.S. Fed Chair Paul Volcker fought inflation in the U.S. in the early ‘80s. It worked for Volcker, as the U.S. stock market embarked on a historic bull run. The Russians —twhose market has been beaten down during the oil/currency crisis —hare expecting a similar result.俄罗斯提高利率的做法和20世纪80年代初时任美联储主席的保罗o沃尔克应对通胀的方法如出一辙。沃尔克的措施收效良好,并带来了美国股市前所未有的大牛市。在石油与货币危机重创俄罗斯股市的情况下,俄罗斯人期盼着同样的结果。Not that the Russian market is anywhere near as important to that country’s economy as the US’s is to its. Russians don’t play the market like Americans do. There is no Jim Kramerovsky’s Mad Money in Russia.不过,在俄罗斯经济中,股市的重要性远不及美国。俄罗斯人也不像美国人那样炒股。在俄罗斯可没有《Mad Money》那样的投资节目。Russia is not some Zimbabwe-to-be. It’s sitting on a surplus of foreign assets and very healthy foreign exchange reserves of around 5 billion. Moreover, it has a strong debt-to-GDP ratio of just 13% and a large (and steadily growing) stockpile of gold.俄罗斯不会成为津巴布韦。它的经常账户处于盈余状态,外汇储备保持在大约3750亿美元的健康水平。同时,俄罗斯的债务占GDP比率很低,只有13%;而黄金储备充足且保持稳定增长。And there is Russia’s energy relationship with the EU, particularly Germany. Putin showed his clout when he axed the South Stream pipeline and announced that he would run a pipeline through Turkey instead. The cancellation barely lasted long enough to speak it before the EU caved and offered Putin what he needed to get South Stream back on line. Germany is never going to let Turkey be a gatekeeper of European energy security. With winter arriving, the EU’s dependence on Russian oil and gas will take center stage, and the union will become a stabilizing influence on Russia once again.俄罗斯和欧盟在能源方面也有联系,特别是和德国。普京曾强硬的取消了与欧盟合作的南流(South Stream)天然气管道项目,并宣称将取道土耳其另建一条管道。话音未落,欧盟方面就做出让步满足了普京的要求,以确保这个项目重新上马。德国永远也不会让土耳其在欧洲能源安全方面发挥“守门员”的作用。随着冬季临近,欧盟对俄罗斯油气的依赖将成为主导因素,而欧盟将再次为稳定俄罗斯局势而施加影响。In short, while the current situation is not working in Russia’s favor, the country is far from down for the count. It will arrest the ruble’s slide and keep pumping oil. Its economy will contract but not crumble. The harsh reality is that American shale fields have much more to fear from plummeting oil prices than the Russians (or the Saudis), since their costs of production are much higher. Many US shale wells will become uneconomic if oil falls much further. And it they start shutting down, it’ll be disastrous for the American economy, since the growth of the shale industry has underpinned 100% of US economic growth for the past several years.简而言之,尽管当前情况不利,但俄罗斯远未倒下。它将止住卢布的下滑势头并继续开采石油。俄罗斯经济将萎缩,但不会崩盘。而严峻的现实是,面对油价直线下降,生产成本居高的美国页岩油气公司要担心的东西远远超过俄罗斯(或者沙特)。如果油价继续大幅度下跌,美国的许多页岩油井将难以为继。而如果这些油井开始停产,美国经济就会面临灾难,因为这几年美国经济的增长全靠页岩油气行业撑。Those waving their arms about the ruble might do better to look at countries facing real currency crises, like oil-dependent Venezuela and Nigeria, as well as Ukraine. That’s where the serious trouble is going to come.对卢布贬值大惊小怪的人也许更应该看看那些真正面临货币危机的国家,比如高度依赖石油的委内瑞拉和尼日利亚,还有乌克兰。这些才是将要出现大麻烦的地方。(财富中文网) /201412/350631。