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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2017年12月16日 03:30:15
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A Chinese infrastructure tycoon who is suing local governments for allegedly failing to pay their construction bills said on Monday that he had reached settlement agreements totalling about Rmb700m (3m).状告地方政府拖欠工程款的一位中国基建巨头周一表示,他已达成总额约7亿元人民币(合1.13亿美元)的和解协议。Yan Jiehe, founder of the Nanjing-based China Pacific Construction Group, sued six local governments in January for debts totalling more than Rmb900m. But repayment agreements have now been hammered out with four of the debtors according to Mr Yan, who vowed to pursue the other two administrations in Hunan and Shandong provinces, which owe more than Rmb200m, to China’s Supreme People’s Court “if needed”.总部位于南京的中国太平洋建设集团(China Pacific Construction Group,简称CPCG)创始人严介和1月起诉六个地方政府拖欠逾9亿元人民币款项。严介和表示,他已经与其中四个债务人敲定还款协议,并誓言会继续向湖南和山东省欠了逾2亿元人民币的另外两个地方政府追债,如有必要会把官司一路打到中国的最高法院。“Our lawsuits put a lot of pressure on the governments,” Mr Yan said at a media briefing in Shanghai. “It means that the rule of law really works. I see great hope for China.”“我们的诉讼给相关地方政府造成了巨大压力,”严介和在上海的一个新闻发布会上表示。“这意味着法治确实管用。我看到了中国的很大希望。”Last year Mr Yan was named China’s seventh richest man by the Hurun Report with a fortune estimated at .2bn, while China Pacific Construction is ranked 166th on the Forbes 500 list of the world’s largest companies, with annual revenues of bn.在去年的胡润百富榜(Hurun Report)上,严介和被列为中国第七大富豪,身家估计达到142亿美元。同时太平洋建设在福布斯(Forbes)世界500强企业排行榜上位居第166位,年营收达到600亿美元。The lawsuits, believed to be the first of their kind in China, highlighted the massive debts accrued by local governments which borrowed money to build infrastructure and prop up economic growth in the wake of the global financial crisis.这些诉讼据信是中国首批状告地方政府欠债的诉讼,它们突显出,全球金融危机过后,中国各地的地方政府因举债建设基础设施、扶持经济增长而积累了巨额债务。According to the National Audit Office, local governments had accumulated Rmb18tn in debts as of June 2013, with Rmb2.8tn due this year中国国家审计署的数据显示,截至2013年6月,地方政府积累了18万亿元人民币债务,其中2.8万亿元人民币债务将在今年到期。In a belated effort to tackle the potential crisis, the Chinese government has authorised local administrations to issue Rmb1tn worth of municipal bonds in an effort to roll over some of the debt. Beijing also instructed state banks on May 15 to continue to fund public infrastructure projects even if the finance vehicles backing them were behind on their interest or principal payments.为应对这场潜在的危机,中国中央政府姗姗来迟地授权地方政府发行1万亿元人民币的市政债券,以便滚转一部分债务。北京方面在5月15日还指示国有继续向公共基础设施项目提供资金——即便这些项目背后的融资工具拖欠了利息或本金。In an interview with the Financial Times in February, Mr Yan said that his company had sued the six local governments to send a signal to other administrations that owed China Pacific Construction as much as Rmb50bn. He described the tactic as “striking the mountains to shake the tigers”.严介和在2月份接受英国《金融时报》专访时表示,他的公司起诉六个地方政府之举,是向其它地方政府发出一个信号,这些政府总共欠了太平洋建设高达500亿元人民币。他形容这种战术是“敲山震虎”。At Monday’s briefing, Mr Yan said that his gambit had been successful, with his company’s accounts receivable from local governments declining to Rmb40bn over recent months against a “normal” level of about Rmb30bn.严介和在周一的发布会上宣布,他的策略是成功的,他的公司的对地方政府应收账款在近几个月已下降至400亿元人民币,而“正常”水平是大约300亿元人民币。The construction tycoon, who made his fortune in a sector traditionally dominated by state and military-backed firms, said one local government in central Hebei province that owed him Rmb140m had previously protested it had no money. But it coughed up Rmb40m shortly after China Pacific Construction filed the lawsuits and has also agreed to repay the outstanding Rmb100m.这位建筑业巨头在一个传统上由政府和军方持的企业主导的行业发了财。他表示,河北省一个欠他1.4亿元人民币的地方政府此前曾抱怨其无钱付款。但在太平洋建设提起诉讼后不久,该地方政府就拿出4000万元人民币,并同意偿还剩余的1亿元人民币。“Before it was hard to get even Rmb4m from them and government officials were nowhere to be found when we visited,” Mr Yan said. “After the suit, our staff were received by their top leaders.”“以前,从他们那里拿到400万元人民币都很难,在我们上门时,政府官员们跑得一个人都找不到,”严介和表示。“打官司后,我们的工作人员见到了他们的最高领导。”He added that another county government had agreed to pay off its debt in monthly instalments of Rmb6m after it was threatened with legal action.他补充说,在威胁采取法律行动后,另一个县政府已同意以每月600万元人民币按月分期偿债。The governments targeted by China Pacific Construction could not be reached immediately for comment.记者一时联系不上被太平洋建设索债的地方政府请其置评。 /201505/377182

  A woman so scared of leaving her ex-partner she gained three stone in an attempt to force him to end the relationship has dropped ten dress sizes.一位女子由于不好意思主动向前男友提出分手,增肥了3英石(约19公斤),好让男友主动开口断绝两人的关系。现在她再次减肥,她合身的裙子已经小了10个尺码。Louise McElhinney purposefully piled on weight to try and force her #39;controlling#39; former partner to break-up with her.路易丝·麦克尔希尼故意让自己暴增肥,以逼迫自己的“控制狂”前男友跟她分手。But after having to end the relationship herself, the woman from Wembley, London, ballooned to 18st after finding comfort in junk food.但当她苦心经营的分手计划成功之后,这位来自伦敦文布利的姑娘又开始靠垃圾食品来消除分手后的苦闷,最终体重暴增到了18英石(约119公斤)。Now, the 37-year-old has gone from a size 22 to 12 after dropping eight stone.如今这位37岁的姑娘又减掉了8英石(约49公斤),衣尺码也从22号变小到了12号。Speaking of her transformation, she said: #39;I was always slim and happy when I was younger, maintaining a size 10 or 12. I was a confident person - always the first one on the dance floor.谈到自己的暴增肥,她说:“年轻的时候我一向十分苗条,充满快乐,衣尺码保持在10号到12号之间。我曾经充满自信——总是第一个跳到舞池中开始跳舞的人。”#39;But the person I was had disappeared and lived in a bubble. I was not the person I used to be.#39;“增肥之后,过去的那个我消失了。我成了一个肉球。我再也不是从前的那个我了。”After following the notoriously tough Cambridge Weight Plan, Louise soon started to see a difference and found motivation in the results.路易斯采用了以严苛著称的剑桥减肥食谱进行减肥,她开始发现自己的变化,由此更有了减肥的动力。#39;since I#39;ve lost the weight I#39;ve been back to the same theme park and been on every ride, just because I can.“自从我减肥成功之后,我又有了自信,回到了过去常去的主题公园,玩遍各种游乐设施。”#39;It sounds cheesy. but if I can do it and lose the weight, then anyone can.#39;“这听起来有点俗气,但是如果我能做得到,任何人都可以。” /201401/274267

  China has executed eight people in the frontier region of Xinjiang for what it said were “terrorist” acts, including masterminding last year’s suicide car attack on Tiananmen Square.中国在新疆对其所称的犯有“恐怖”罪行的八人执行死刑,包括去年策划在天安门广场发动自杀式汽车袭击的罪犯。The official Xinhua news agency said yesterday that the executions had been approved by the top court in Xinjiang, an area on the far western border that is home to Muslim Uighurs and other ethnic minorities. The report did not say when the executions had been carried out.官方的新华社(Xinhua)昨日表示,死刑由新疆地方法院依法执行。报道没有说明执行死刑的具体时间。新疆位于中国的西北边陲,是信仰伊斯兰教的维吾尔族和其他一些少数民族的家园。The sentences highlight Beijing’s determination to take a tough line on separatists in the province.这些处决行动突显北京方面决心用强硬手段对付新疆的分离主义者。The government believes extremists from Xinjiang were responsible for several brutal incidents in recent months, including a knife attack on a train station in Kunming, southern China, in March in which 29 people died. In May, 39 people were killed, along with four attackers, and more than 90 wounded when assailants threw explosives and drove two off-road vehicles through a crowd at a market in the Xinjiang capital of Urumqi.中国政府相信,来自新疆的极端分子要对近几个月来的多起凶残事件负责,包括3月在中国南方城市昆明的火车站发起的持刀攻击,那次攻击导致29人被害。5月,攻击者在新疆首府乌鲁木齐市开着两辆越野车冲击一个早市,还投掷爆炸物,这起事件导致39人死亡,超过90人受伤;4个攻击者也当场丧生。Xinhua said the crimes of those executed included masterminding the 2013 crash of a car into a crowd of tourists at the entrance to Beijing’s Forbidden City, in which those driving the car and two bystanders were killed.新华社说,被处决的人所犯的罪行包括策划2013年在北京天安门广场驾车冲撞金水桥的游客人群,那次事件造成车内人员和两名路人死亡。Xinhua added the other executions were punishment for crimes ranging from the illegal manufacture of explosives to the establishment of a terrorist organisation.新华社补充说,被处决的其他人所犯的罪行包括非法制造爆炸物和建立一个恐怖组织。The news agency also said one man had been executed for his role in the attack on a police station in the Xinjiang city of Aksu last year, while another had been put to death because he had “watched audiovisual materials on religious extremism”, and “killed an innocent civilian” last year.新华社还表示,有一个人是因为去年在阿克苏地区袭击警察而被处决,还有一个人被执行死刑是因为他曾在去年“收听观看宣扬宗教极端、暴力恐怖内容的音视频”,然后“持刀闯入一群众家中并将其杀害”。The executions and sentences are part of a crackdown that comes after Beijing vowed a year-long campaign against terrorism in the wake of the market attack.这些处决和判决是一场打击行动的一部分。此前在新疆早市爆炸袭击事件之后,北京方面誓言以新疆为主战场,开展为期一年的严打暴恐专项行动。In June, 13 people were executed for Xinjiang-linked terrorist attacks.今年6月,13人因涉及新疆的恐怖袭击而被处决。Last month the government-appointed imam of the region’s largest and most prestigious mosque was stabbed to death in the street in Kashgar, China’s westernmost city.上个月,新疆最大且最知名的清真寺——艾提尕尔清真寺由政府任命的大毛拉在喀什的街道上被刺死。喀什是中国最西部的城市。 /201408/324436。

  London is the fifth most expensive city in the world in which to live and work, but its workers are not among the top 10 average earners globally.在全球生活成本最昂贵城市的排名中,伦敦位列第五,但伦敦劳动者的平均收入却未能在全球跻身前十位之列。The findings, from UBS, the Swiss bank, show that the widely held belief among Londoners that the city is painfully pricey to live in has some basis in reality.瑞银(UBS)的研究结果表明,伦敦人对于伦敦是一个生活成本高昂得令人痛苦的城市的普遍看法,是有一些现实依据的。“This suggests London isn’t a highly priced labour market in terms of the purchasing power of goods [and] labour remains quite competitive from a business perspective,” said Bill O’Neill, head of the UK investment office at UBS Wealth Management.“这表明,就商品购买力而言,伦敦不是一个高价的劳动力市场,而从商业角度来说,其劳动市场的竞争依然相当激烈,”瑞银财富管理(UBS Wealth Management)英国投资办事处主管比尔攠尼尔(Bill O’Neill)表示。Excluding rent, London is the sixth most expensive city in the world, and workers’ gross earnings are, on average, the 13th highest.剔除房租,伦敦是全球生活成本第六昂贵的城市,而伦敦劳动者的平均总收入则在全球排名第十三位。UBS compared prices, wages and earners’ purchasing power in 71 cities worldwide in nominal US$ terms. It found that, based on the prices for a standardised basket of 122 goods and services, Zurich, Geneva and New York City were the most expensive cities in the world. The cost of living was lowest in eastern Europe, with Kiev the cheapest city in which to live and work.瑞银按名义美元比较了71个城市的物价、薪资和劳动者购买力。根据由122种商品和务组成的标准化篮子的价格,瑞银发现苏黎世、日内瓦和纽约市是世界上生活成本最昂贵的前三个城市。东欧的生活成本最低,其中基辅是全球生活成本最低的城市。UBS also found that, since the financial crisis, there had been marked divergence in relative labour costs within the eurozone. Since 2009, gross hourly wages have fallen by 2 per cent in Dublin, by 15 per cent in Lisbon, but had risen 11 per cent in Milan.瑞银还发现,在金融危机之后,欧元区各国的相对劳动力成本出现了明显分化。2009年后,都柏林的总时薪降低了2%,里斯本降低了15%,而米兰则上升了11%。Workers in Zurich, Geneva, and Luxembourg earn the highest gross wages. In Nairobi, Jakarta and Kiev, workers receive only about a 20th of average gross earnings in Zurich. Salaries went furthest in Luxembourg, Zurich and Geneva, whereas those in Nairobi and Jakarta had the lowest purchasing power.苏黎世、日内瓦和卢森堡的劳动者的总薪资最高。内罗毕、雅加达和基辅的劳动者平均收入仅为苏黎世的5%左右。卢森堡、苏黎世和日内瓦的购买力最高,而内罗毕和雅加达的购买力则最低。It would take workers in London more than 41 hours to earn enough money to buy an iPhone 6, compared with less than 30 hours in US and Swiss cities. A Big Mac costs almost three hours of average earnings in Nairobi, compared with just nine minutes in Hong Kong — the lowest — and 12 minutes in London.伦敦劳动者需要工作逾41个小时才能赚到足够买一部iPhone6的钱,而美国和瑞士城市的劳动者只需不到30个小时的工作时间。在内罗毕,买一个巨无霸几乎需要三个小时的平均收入,而在香港仅需9分钟——香港的这一数值是全球最低的——在伦敦则需要12分钟。But the affordability of a Big Mac in Hong Kong came at a price. People in Hong Kong work the longest hours, four more a day than workers in Paris, who spend the fewest hours at work.但香港人对巨无霸的购买力是有代价的。香港劳动者的工作时长是全球最长的,平均每个工作日比巴黎劳动者多4个小时,后者是工作时长最短的。On average people worked over 2,000 hours a year in 19 major cities, most of them in Asia and the Middle East.有19个城市——其中大多数位于亚洲和中东——的劳动者平均每年工作时长超过2000个小时。The shortest work schedule and highest number of days of paid vacation are enjoyed by workers in western Europe.西欧劳动者则享受最短的工作时长和最多的带薪休假天数。The UBS study of wages and prices has been running since 1971. The last one, in 2012, found that London was the 10th priciest city in the world, and wages were the 19th highest.瑞银对薪资和物价的研究从1971年持续至今。上一次瑞银发布研究结果是在2012年,当时伦敦在全球城市生活成本排名中位列第十,其薪资水平则排在第十九位。 /201509/399855

  China has executed eight people in the frontier region of Xinjiang for what it said were “terrorist” acts, including masterminding last year’s suicide car attack on Tiananmen Square.中国在新疆对其所称的犯有“恐怖”罪行的八人执行死刑,包括去年策划在天安门广场发动自杀式汽车袭击的罪犯。The official Xinhua news agency said yesterday that the executions had been approved by the top court in Xinjiang, an area on the far western border that is home to Muslim Uighurs and other ethnic minorities. The report did not say when the executions had been carried out.官方的新华社(Xinhua)昨日表示,死刑由新疆地方法院依法执行。报道没有说明执行死刑的具体时间。新疆位于中国的西北边陲,是信仰伊斯兰教的维吾尔族和其他一些少数民族的家园。The sentences highlight Beijing’s determination to take a tough line on separatists in the province.这些处决行动突显北京方面决心用强硬手段对付新疆的分离主义者。The government believes extremists from Xinjiang were responsible for several brutal incidents in recent months, including a knife attack on a train station in Kunming, southern China, in March in which 29 people died. In May, 39 people were killed, along with four attackers, and more than 90 wounded when assailants threw explosives and drove two off-road vehicles through a crowd at a market in the Xinjiang capital of Urumqi.中国政府相信,来自新疆的极端分子要对近几个月来的多起凶残事件负责,包括3月在中国南方城市昆明的火车站发起的持刀攻击,那次攻击导致29人被害。5月,攻击者在新疆首府乌鲁木齐市开着两辆越野车冲击一个早市,还投掷爆炸物,这起事件导致39人死亡,超过90人受伤;4个攻击者也当场丧生。Xinhua said the crimes of those executed included masterminding the 2013 crash of a car into a crowd of tourists at the entrance to Beijing’s Forbidden City, in which those driving the car and two bystanders were killed.新华社说,被处决的人所犯的罪行包括策划2013年在北京天安门广场驾车冲撞金水桥的游客人群,那次事件造成车内人员和两名路人死亡。Xinhua added the other executions were punishment for crimes ranging from the illegal manufacture of explosives to the establishment of a terrorist organisation.新华社补充说,被处决的其他人所犯的罪行包括非法制造爆炸物和建立一个恐怖组织。The news agency also said one man had been executed for his role in the attack on a police station in the Xinjiang city of Aksu last year, while another had been put to death because he had “watched audiovisual materials on religious extremism”, and “killed an innocent civilian” last year.新华社还表示,有一个人是因为去年在阿克苏地区袭击警察而被处决,还有一个人被执行死刑是因为他曾在去年“收听观看宣扬宗教极端、暴力恐怖内容的音视频”,然后“持刀闯入一群众家中并将其杀害”。The executions and sentences are part of a crackdown that comes after Beijing vowed a year-long campaign against terrorism in the wake of the market attack.这些处决和判决是一场打击行动的一部分。此前在新疆早市爆炸袭击事件之后,北京方面誓言以新疆为主战场,开展为期一年的严打暴恐专项行动。In June, 13 people were executed for Xinjiang-linked terrorist attacks.今年6月,13人因涉及新疆的恐怖袭击而被处决。Last month the government-appointed imam of the region’s largest and most prestigious mosque was stabbed to death in the street in Kashgar, China’s westernmost city.上个月,新疆最大且最知名的清真寺——艾提尕尔清真寺由政府任命的大毛拉在喀什的街道上被刺死。喀什是中国最西部的城市。 /201408/324436

  

  

  

  Anbang Insurance Group, which this week bought New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel for .9bn, has a big thing going for it in its home market: its founder and chairman is the grandson-in-law of Deng Xiaoping, architect of modern China.本周以19.5亿美元买下纽约华尔道夫酒店(Waldorf Astoria hotel)的安邦保险集团(Anbang Insurance Group),在其本土市场有一大优势:其创始人和董事长是现代中国总设计师邓小平的外孙女婿。Anbang’s chairman, Wu Xiaohui, who is in his late 40s, is known in Beijing for his ruthless business style and the support he receives from powerful political leaders.在北京,安邦集团近50岁的董事长吴小晖以无情的商业风格和强大的政治后台闻名。He is married to the granddaughter of Deng. The Deng family retains considerable political influence.他娶了邓小平的外孙女为妻。邓家在中国保留了相当大的政治影响力。Mr Wu has invested in real estate, mining and infrastructure. He established Anbang Property amp; Casualty Insurance in 2004 when it was virtually impossible to enter the state-dominated insurance sector.吴小晖投资于房地产、矿业和基础设施。他在2004年创建了安邦财产保险(Anbang Property amp; Casualty Insurance),当时要进入国企主导的保险业几乎是不可能的事。Anbang Insurance was established five years ago. Within 18 months it was boasting assets of Rmb510bn (bn). It now claims assets of more than Rmb700bn, including the Waldorf Astoria.安邦保险成立于5年前。在18个月里,其资产达到5100亿元人民币(合830亿美元)。该集团现在声称拥有超过7000亿元人民币的资产,包括纽约的华尔道夫酒店。Another large insurance company in China – Ping An Insurance – has deep ties to the family of former premier Wen Jiabao, some members of which were large shareholders in the company.中国另一家大型保险公司——平安保险(Ping An Insurance)——与前总理温家宝一家有很深的渊源,该公司的几个较大股东来自温家。Apart from real estate holdings in China, Anbang has stakes in at least four banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Merchants Bank, according to Chinese media reports.据中国媒体报道,除了中国的房地产资产以外,安邦在至少四家持有股份,包括中国工商(IC)和招商(China Merchants Bank)。It is also the controlling shareholder in six insurers, two asset management companies, a financial leasing group and a property developer.该集团还是6家保险商、2家资产管理公司、1家金融租赁集团和1家房地产开发商的控股股东。While it remains a second-tier insurance player within China, Anbang’s rise shows no sign of flagging, and has been credited by Chinese media to Mr Wu’s business acumen, as well as his “apparent success at pushing regulatory limits”, according to Chinese magazine Caixin.尽管它在中国仍是二线保险商,但安邦的发展壮大没有显示疲态。中国媒体将此归因于吴小晖的商业智慧以及他在试探监管底线方面的明显成功。Mr Wu and members of the Deng family could not be contacted for comment. Anbang Insurance Group declined to comment.记者无法联系上吴小晖和邓家成员请其置评。安邦保险集团拒绝对此发表。 /201410/333554

  When India put a cut-price satellite in orbit around Mars last September, one media company could not resist a comparison with China. Although the “Indian elephant” was losing to the “Chinese dragon” in most other respects, NDTV’s website said, at least Delhi was beating Beijing in the race to the red planet.去年9月,当印度把一颗造价低廉的卫星送入火星轨道时,一家媒体公司忍不住拿印度与中国作对比。新德里电视台(NDTV)网站说,虽然“印度象”在其他大多数方面都不如“中国龙”,但德里最起码在奔向红色行星的赛跑中跑赢了北京。Meanwhile, back on planet earth, India may be about to steal another march on China. After years of peering over the Himalayas in awe at China’s superior growth rates, there is now a realistic prospect of India overtaking China on that measure too. The switch could happen as early as next year. That would make India the world’s fastest-growing large economy, finally thrusting it into the limelight after decades in China’s shadow. It might even bring democracy back into fashion. Delhi consensus anyone?把目光转回到地球,印度可能即将在另一场赛跑中偷偷跑到中国前头。多年来,印度一直怀着敬畏之心注视着喜马拉雅山另一边中国的超高增长率。如今,印度在这项指标上也有了赶超中国的现实可能性。这种赶超可能最早在明年就会发生。若真的如此,印度届时将成为全球增长最快的大型经济体。在中国的影子下度过了几十年后,印度终于要一跃成为万众瞩目的焦点,甚至有可能推动民主再度成为一种时尚。是否有人想讨论下“德里共识”?The idea is not as outrageous as it sounds. For years, we had been used to China growing at double-digit rates. Now it is slowing. China’s labour force is shrinking and manufacturing is losing its power. More fundamentally, Chinese leaders recognise the need to change a model that relies too heavily on credit and energy inputs. China’s growth has aly dropped to below 7.5 per cent. Before long, Beijing will probably allow it to settle down somewhere in the 6-7 per cent range. It would certainly take that option over a crisis, which could temporarily send growth much lower.上述观点并不像听起来那么离谱。多年来,我们已经习惯了中国以两位数的速率增长。如今,中国的增长正在放缓。中国的劳动力正在萎缩,制造业正逐渐失去动力。更重要的是,中国领导人认识到有必要改变这种过于依赖信贷和能源投入的经济增长模式。中国的增长速度已跌破7.5%,用不了多久,北京方面很可能会允许增速稳定在6%到7%之间的某一点上。它肯定宁愿选择这样、也不愿选择一场危机,因为危机可能会在短期内让增速降到低得多的水平上。India, meanwhile, may be about to go the other way. A Goldman Sachs report says the country is on the verge of a new growth cycle. The economy is in better shape. The current account and fiscal deficits have fallen, as has previously stubborn inflation. Cheap oil is a boon.印度则可能将朝着相反的方向前进。高盛(Goldman Sachs)的一份报告称,印度即将进入新一轮增长周期,它的经济形势要好于以前。印度的经常账户赤字和财政赤字已经收窄,之前居高不下的通胀也已下降。廉价石油是一个福音。India also has political momentum. Although some are disappointed at what they regard as a timid start by Narendra Modi, the prime minister, there is a palpable sense of optimism these days. In theory, it should not take much to get the economy ticking over more effectively after a few years in the doldrums, when growth dropped to 5 per cent. So when might India overtake China? The World Bank puts it at 2017. In its latest forecasts, it predicts India will be growing at 7 per cent in that year, with China down to 6.9 per cent.在政治上,印度也呈现出积极的势头。虽然有些人对印度总理纳伦德拉#8226;莫迪(Narendra Modi)迈出的第一步感到失望(他们认为这第一步迈得不够大胆),但近来明显能感受到一股乐观情绪。理论上讲,印度经济在经历了几年的低潮期(其间增速降至5%)后,应该不会费太大力就能提高运行效率。那么,印度可能会在什么时候超过中国呢?世界(World Bank)认为是2017年。世行在其最新的预测中预计,2017年印度的增长速度将达到7%,而中国将降至6.9%。Predictions, especially such precise ones, should be taken with a generous helping of chilli powder (or oyster sauce if you are ing this in China). We have been here before. A few years ago, it was fashionable — especially in India — to describe the Indian tortoise as being on the verge of overtaking the Chinese hare. That prediction ended up as turtle soup.这种预测——尤其是如此精确的预测——得就着一大份辣椒面(或是蚝油,如果你是中国读者的话)“享用”。我们有过这种经验。几年前曾流行将印度形容为一只马上要超过中国兔的乌龟——这种观点在印度国内尤其常见。这一预测最终变成了一碗龟汤。What could stop India this time? There are several things, but I shall stick to two. First, Mr Modi may find it harder than he imagines to remove bottlenecks. Reforms aimed at boosting manufacturing or encouraging capital investment may prove tougher to implement at national level than they did when he was running Gujarat. Besides, some reforms, such as relaxing the rules on foreign ownership of insurance companies, may not prove to be the magic bullets that industry lobbyists claim.那么这一次,有什么能阻挡住印度呢?这样的障碍有几个,但我只讲两个。首先,莫迪可能会发现,扫除瓶颈比他想象的要难。事实可能会明,在国家层面上实施旨在提振制造业或鼓励资本投资的改革,其难度要大于他掌管古吉拉特邦时在该邦实施这些改革。事实可能还会明,有些改革——比如放宽对外资持股印度保险公司的规定——可能并不是行业游说团体所称的那种灵丹妙药。Second, and perhaps more fundamental, democratic India is still caught in an ideological battle over where to strike the balance between pursuit of growth and protection of the environment and land rights. The debate, ferocious at times, is being waged in the courts and in the public arena. In recent months, a leaked report by India’s intelligence bureau claimed that foreign-backed non-governmental organisations were using environmental concerns as a pretext to stymie India’s development. Conspiracy theories aside, tussles between activists and industrialists have held projects back. South Korea’s Posco has been fighting with local residents for years over plans to build a bn steel mill in the eastern state of Orissa. Vedanta, an Indian mining company, has failed to secure permission to mine bauxite in the same state because the nearby hills are held sacred by local people. Balancing the ambition to grow with other legitimate interests is an unsolved puzzle.其次,或许也是更根本的,民主的印度仍困在意识形态斗争里,还在纠结于在追求增长与保护环境和土地权利之间求得平衡。这场时不时变得如火如荼的辩论,眼下正在法庭和公共舞台上上演。近几个月,一份外泄的印度情报部门报告称,外国持的非政府组织以环境问题为借口阻碍印度的发展。先不谈什么阴谋论,行动主义者与实业家之间的角力已导致若干工程搁浅。韩国的浦项制铁(Posco)为了在印度东部奥里萨邦建立一座120亿美元的钢厂,几年来一直在与当地居民斗争。还是在奥里萨邦,印度矿企韦丹塔(Vedanta)未能拿到开采铝土矿的许可,因为附近山脉被当地居民奉为圣山。在实现增长的雄心与其他合法权益之间求得平衡是一个仍未得到解答的难题。In a very different context, similar concerns are playing out in China. Beijing, at least rhetorically, is now putting as much emphasis on the quality of growth as on the quantity. Responding to the central government’s lead, several cities have dropped gross domestic product as a performance metric and are emphasising environmental protection and poverty reduction instead. It would be an irony if India finally overtakes China in terms of headline growth just as the concept goes out of fashion.虽然大环境与印度截然不同,但中国也出现了类似的担忧。北京方面正将经济增长的质量和数量摆在同等重要的位置上,至少口头上是如此。为了响应中央政府的号召,一些城市已经不再把国内生产总值(GDP)当作一项绩效考核指标,转而强调环保和减贫。如果印度恰好是在整体增速的概念变得过时之际终于在整体增速上超过中国,那将是一大讽刺。 /201501/355015

  

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